UK companies will see some of the smallest car hire increases in Europe over the next two years, with rates forecast to rise by between 0.6% and 1.3%, according to the latest Ground Monitor from American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT).

The annual forecast, produced by Amex GBT Consulting, puts UK car rental rates near the bottom of the European table alongside France and Spain, where prices are expected to be flat to 0.5% higher. Recovering vehicle supply and strong competition between providers are keeping a lid on UK pricing. For SME travel bookers, that makes ground transport one of the few parts of the trip budget not under obvious inflationary pressure, although the total cost of getting from an airport to a meeting is shifting in less visible ways.

What the UK car rental rates forecast means for budgets

Amex GBT models a lower and an upper figure for each market rather than a single number. Its rule of thumb is to plan against the lower forecast if global inflation stays in line with the International Monetary Fund projection of 4.4% for 2026, and the upper figure if inflation runs hotter.

Elsewhere in Europe the picture is patchier. The Netherlands is set for the sharpest rises at 4% to 5%, driven by motor vehicle tax changes that push up the cost of running a rental fleet. Germany is forecast at 1% to 2%, with new vehicle registrations for rental fleets still just under a quarter below 2019 levels, and Scandinavia at 1% to 2.5%. Canada and the United States sit at 1.5% to 2%, Brazil and Chile at 2% to 4%, and Australia at 3% to 3.4%.

Anyone hiring in North America should read the headline rate with caution. Amex GBT flags a significant rise in the number and value of city surcharges, including day of week charges and airport fees. Once limited to a handful of cities, they now push up the real cost of hiring even where base rates barely move.

When to rent and when to ride hail

The report also puts a number on a question many travellers settle by instinct. Amex GBT modelled airport to city centre return journeys in ten major US business destinations, comparing daily rental rates against ride hailing fares and factoring in tolls and parking. Over a single day, renting came out cheaper in five cities outright, with several others close enough that ride hailing wins once refuelling is added. Stretch the same trip across two days and ride hailing was cheaper in every city tested.

Several journeys in one day, or a destination where parking is free, favour a rental car. A single return transfer across a longer stay favours ride hailing. Our guide to hiring a car for business trips covers the insurance and documentation side of that decision.

Consolidation is reshaping the supplier list

The mobility market itself is changing shape. Lyft completed its acquisition of European multi-mobility app FREENOW in July 2025, bought premium provider TBR Global Chauffeuring, then agreed to buy the London black cab business of Gett. Uber announced plans to buy executive chauffeur platform Blacklane in March 2026. Amex GBT reads the deals as evidence that operators see strong yields in the pre-book sector, and advises corporates to ask newly acquired black car suppliers whether they can still deliver on reliability, comfort and pricing. The same convergence is visible in autonomous ride hailing plans for London, and in the blurring of the lines between rental, car sharing, subscription and fleet management.

That gives buyers more leverage than for several years. With supply chains recovered and providers holding rebuilt inventory, Amex GBT says it is now less risky to consolidate a car programme onto one or two suppliers, and that rental companies will usually offer a better deal in return for committed volume. It also suggests auditing usage by ACRISS code, since a single category can contain up to ten car types and premium bookings quietly lift the average daily rate.

Technology adds cost quietly too. Replacing a windscreen on a car fitted with advanced driver assistance systems requires a trained technician to recalibrate the sensors, which can add up to US$1,500 to the bill. The full Ground Monitor analysis is available from Amex GBT, and UK fleet supply trends are tracked in the BVRLA Rental Outlook.