Britain’s aviation industry is sounding the alarm over the Government’s net zero targets, warning that without urgent action the country risks falling behind its climate pledges.
Two of the UK’s largest carriers, Virgin Atlantic and International Airlines Group (IAG) – the parent company of British Airways – have raised concerns that the Government’s 10% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate for 2030 is becoming increasingly unrealistic.
At a global SAF summit in London, airline executives warned of a widening “credibility gap” between the aviation sector’s ambitious climate goals and the actual pace of fuel production. Despite the UK government mandating that one in ten litres of jet fuel must come from sustainable sources by the end of the decade, not a single SAF production plant has yet been built on British soil.
For Virgin Atlantic, the issue is one of trust. Holly Boyd-Boland, vice president of corporate development, told delegates that airlines risk reaching an inflection point where they can no longer convincingly claim they are on track for net zero.
“We’re at risk of a growing credibility gap for us as a sector in terms of where we set our ambition and what we actually deliver,” she said. “From a consumer perspective and wider stakeholders, we’re getting close to an inflection point where we cannot demonstrate supply in the system and a reduction in emissions.”
IAG’s group head of sustainability, Jonathon Counsell, highlighted just how steep the climb will be. Global SAF production stood at 1 million tonnes in 2023 – a fraction of the 400–500 million tonnes per year that would be required to hit global net zero targets by 2050.
IAG, which last year used more SAF than any other airline group at 162,000 tonnes, has attempted to lock in supply through contracts extending as long as 14 years. But Counsell admitted these deals were hard-fought internally. “It took five board meetings to get approval,” he said, citing fears that governments could soften mandates in the future, leaving those who invested early exposed to higher costs than rivals.
The situation has been compounded by last week’s announcement from Shell that it would abandon plans for a major biofuels plant in Rotterdam. Once touted as one of Europe’s largest SAF facilities, Shell concluded the project was too costly and “insufficiently competitive.”
For analysts, Shell’s retreat underscored the fragility of the sector. Ashley Kelty, energy analyst at Panmure Liberum, described it as “another nail in the ideological coffin” for SAF. The immediate consequence is that supplies will remain scarce and prices high, making it even harder for airlines to deliver on their green promises.
Boyd-Boland flagged another hurdle on the horizon: the UK’s decision to cap the use of SAF derived from used cooking oils and animal fats from 2027. Beyond that date, the country will need to pivot toward second-generation fuels made from municipal waste, non-edible crops and biomass. Yet Britain has no production capacity for these next-generation fuels.
Although the Government has earmarked £63 million for 17 prospective plants, none has yet secured a final investment decision – and industry insiders warn the clock is ticking.
From the European side, Dutch airline KLM’s sustainability chief Zita Schellekens said SAF still held the potential to be aviation’s “silver bullet.” But she cautioned that scaling up production required governments to play a much more active role in de-risking investment.
“This is a critical year,” she said. “The situation isn’t looking very favourable at all. Suppliers are taking a wait-and-see approach. We need more government intervention. More carrots.”
Consumer buy-in also remains weak. KLM revealed that just 1% of passengers opted to pay a surcharge for SAF, with many sceptical about whether their money would genuinely be used to buy cleaner fuel.
The Department for Transport insists progress is being made. A spokesman said: “SAF is a core part of the global drive to decarbonise aviation. SAF is already being produced and supplied at scale in the UK and we are seeing encouraging early signs that the SAF mandate will be met.”
But the industry’s scepticism tells a different story. Provisional data suggests SAF made up just 2% of aviation fuel supplies in 2023, up slightly from 1% the year before. That leaves a daunting trajectory to reach 10% in just seven years.
UK SAF challenge at a glance
- Mandate: UK requires airlines to use 10% SAF by 2030.
- Current use: SAF made up just 2% of UK aviation fuel in 2023.
- Global supply: 1m tonnes produced worldwide in 2023 vs 400–500m tonnes needed annually by 2050.
- Shell exit: Oil giant cancels Rotterdam plant, warning of high costs and weak competitiveness.
- Domestic plants: 17 prospective UK facilities, £63m pledged, but none with final investment decision.
- Future fuels: From 2027, UK will cap cooking oil and animal fat fuels, forcing shift to waste and biomass — where Britain has zero capacity.
For airlines, the warning is stark: without greater government support and faster investment in domestic production, net zero targets may soon slip out of reach. The fear is not only reputational but also competitive. If the UK lags behind Europe and the US in scaling up SAF, it risks losing both investment and influence in shaping global aviation policy.
As Virgin, IAG and KLM made clear, the industry wants to lead the decarbonisation drive. But ambition without supply is meaningless. Unless Britain’s SAF sector gets off the ground, the promise of sustainable flying may prove a mirage — and net zero aviation by 2050 could remain little more than a flight of fancy.