Britain’s leading airlines have warned that the Government’s net zero targets for aviation are in danger of becoming unachievable, as shortages of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) threaten to derail progress.
Virgin Atlantic and International Airlines Group (IAG), the parent of British Airways, told the SAF Global Summit in London that the UK’s mandate requiring carriers to use 10% SAF by 2030 risks slipping beyond reach because of a lack of production capacity.
Despite government backing, not a single SAF plant has yet been built in the UK. Virgin executive Holly Boyd-Boland said the industry faced a looming “credibility gap” between ambition and delivery.
“We’re at risk of a growing credibility gap for us as a sector in terms of where we set our ambition and what we actually deliver,” she said. “From a consumer perspective and wider stakeholders, we’re getting close to an inflection point where we cannot demonstrate supply in the system and a reduction in emissions.”
IAG’s sustainability chief Jonathon Counsell highlighted the scale of the challenge. Global SAF production totalled 1m tonnes last year – a “drop in the ocean” compared with the 400–500m tonnes needed annually to meet net zero by 2050.
IAG was the largest airline user of SAF in 2023 at 162,000 tonnes, supported by long-term supply contracts of up to 14 years. But Counsell admitted it took five board meetings to approve the deals, amid fears that governments could weaken mandates in future and penalise airlines that had invested early.
The warnings come days after Shell scrapped plans for a major biofuels facility in Rotterdam, saying it would be too costly and “insufficiently competitive.” Analysts at Panmure Liberum said the decision was “another nail in the coffin” for SAF’s affordability, signalling higher prices and constrained supply.
Boyd-Boland also raised alarm over a UK cap on SAF made from used cooking oil and animal fats from 2027, which will require a pivot to second-generation fuels made from municipal waste, non-edible crops and biomass. Britain currently has no production capability in these areas, despite £63m of government funding earmarked for 17 potential plants. None has reached a final investment decision.
Zita Schellekens, sustainability chief at Dutch airline KLM, said SAF remained a potential “silver bullet” for decarbonising aviation but that suppliers were reluctant to invest at scale without stronger government incentives.
“This is a critical year. The situation isn’t looking very favourable at all. Suppliers are taking a wait-and-see approach. We need more government intervention. More carrots.”
She also noted that just 1% of KLM passengers opted to pay extra for SAF, with many doubting whether contributions were genuinely used to purchase fuel.
Provisional statistics show SAF made up about 2% of aviation fuel supplies last year, up from 1% the previous year.
A Department for Transport spokesman insisted progress was being made: “SAF is a core part of the global drive to decarbonise aviation. SAF is already being produced and supplied at scale in the UK and we are seeing encouraging early signs that the SAF mandate will be met.”