A new high‑resolution forecasting system promises to reduce disruption from volcanic ash clouds, offering airlines and their corporate passengers greater certainty in maintaining schedules.
The Met Office has unveiled a next‑generation forecasting service designed to minimise the impact of volcanic ash on international aviation. Acting as London’s Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), the organisation will now deliver Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) forecasts, providing precise data on ash concentrations across multiple layers of the atmosphere.
Unlike traditional “visible ash” assessments, the QVA model aligns with modern aircraft certification standards, enabling airlines to make more confident operational decisions. For business travellers, this means fewer cancellations and reroutes when volcanic activity occurs in regions such as Iceland and the North Atlantic—areas notorious for disrupting transatlantic and European corridors.
Why it matters for corporate travel
- Reduced disruption: The Met Office estimates that a repeat of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption would now cause half the level of disruption thanks to the new system.
- Global reach: Forecasts are freely available to airlines worldwide, ensuring consistency across carriers and alliances.
- Operational clarity: Gridded data slices up to 60,000ft give airlines a detailed picture of ash density, helping them plan routes with precision.
- Business continuity: By cutting down on mass cancellations, the system supports industries reliant on predictable travel—finance, tech, and international trade among them.
The initiative positions the UK as one of the first aviation authorities to adopt ICAO‑mandated QVA forecasting, alongside Meteo France. Other VAACs will follow in 2026, but for now London and Toulouse are setting the pace.
For corporate travel managers, the development signals a shift towards resilience in aviation planning. With ash disruption historically costing millions in lost productivity and stranded executives, the ability to forecast with confidence is a tangible win for the business travel sector.