Airlines across Europe are bracing for sharply rising operating costs after the escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered a surge in jet fuel prices, pushing aviation fuel to its highest level in more than three years.
The price of kerosene in European markets has climbed to a three-and-a-half-year peak as fears grow that supply routes from the Gulf region could be severely disrupted. The spike comes as geopolitical tensions in the region escalate and shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly uncertain.
Although crude oil prices have risen significantly in recent days, the surge in aviation fuel costs has been even more dramatic. Benchmark Brent crude has climbed more than 10 per cent this week to around $78.60 per barrel and is roughly 20 per cent higher than it was a fortnight ago. However, jet fuel prices have surged far more sharply, reflecting the aviation sector’s particular dependence on Middle Eastern supply routes.
According to commodity pricing specialists Argus Media, the cost of jet fuel being physically delivered to airlines has risen by 23 per cent in just one week. Prices are now 48 per cent higher than last Friday and have climbed 68 per cent over the past month.
Market participants have described trading conditions in the jet fuel market as highly volatile, with one analyst saying the situation has become “off the charts”. Traders reported that pricing dynamics have become detached from normal supply-and-demand fundamentals.
Amaar Khan, an analyst at Argus Media, said the market had entered a period of extreme turbulence.
“Even though jet fuel supply is under significant threat because of the conflict in the Middle East, market participants said that jet fuel values have become extremely detached from fundamentals,” he said. “No fundamentals can explain these prices.”
Jet fuel prices have risen to nearly double the level of Brent crude, a pricing gap that analysts say has never been seen before.
The aviation industry’s vulnerability stems largely from Europe’s reliance on fuel imports from the Gulf region. Around 40 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports in 2025 originated from the Middle East Gulf and were transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Argus Media.
Kuwait alone has become Europe’s largest supplier of jet fuel, making the region critical to the continent’s aviation sector.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with global shipping lanes, has effectively become a chokepoint in the crisis. Iran has imposed a blockade following military strikes against the country by the United States and Israel, leading to major disruptions in tanker traffic.
Any prolonged closure or disruption to this route could dramatically tighten global aviation fuel supplies.
Argus analysts warned that while European refiners could increase domestic jet fuel production to some extent, their capacity would likely be insufficient to replace Gulf imports if the conflict drags on.
“European refiners can increase jet fuel output to some extent but probably nowhere near enough to offset any prolonged loss of Middle East Gulf supply,” the firm said.
Compounding the problem, freight costs for transporting fuel from alternative regions have soared, making imports from other markets far more expensive.
The sudden spike in jet fuel prices has already rattled aviation markets, with shares in several major European airlines falling sharply in recent days.
International Airlines Group, the parent company of British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus, has seen its shares drop around 16 per cent from the record highs reached last week following the announcement of strong financial results.
The group faces a double challenge from the crisis: higher fuel costs and operational disruption to flights passing through or near the Middle East.
Shares in easyJet have also come under pressure, falling about 6 per cent this week. The airline does not operate directly in the region but remains vulnerable to global fuel price movements. Its stock had already been weak, declining about 15 per cent since the start of the year.
Meanwhile, Wizz Air has warned that the Middle East crisis could wipe €50 million from its annual profits due to higher fuel costs, currency movements and flight cancellations.
The airline has said it now expects to post a full-year loss as a result of these pressures, with its shares plunging roughly 20 per cent over the past week.
Despite the surge in prices, some airlines have partially shielded themselves through fuel hedging strategies, which involve purchasing future fuel supplies at predetermined prices.
Ryanair, the continent’s busiest airline by passenger numbers, has said it has already secured approximately 80 per cent of its jet fuel needs through to March 2027 at a price of $67 per barrel.
IAG has similarly hedged around 62 per cent of its fuel requirements for 2026, helping to cushion the impact of short-term price spikes.
EasyJet has also locked in about 62 per cent of its fuel for the upcoming summer season at roughly $68.80 per barrel.
These hedging programmes mean the immediate financial impact will be limited for some carriers, although sustained high prices would eventually feed through into airline costs once existing contracts expire.
The crisis highlights the vulnerability of the aviation sector to geopolitical shocks and energy market disruptions.
Jet fuel typically accounts for between 20 and 30 per cent of an airline’s operating costs, meaning sudden price increases can quickly erode profitability.
With demand for air travel continuing to recover following the pandemic and global passenger numbers rising, any sustained disruption to energy supplies could significantly increase costs for both airlines and travellers.
Analysts say the key factor now will be how long the conflict continues and whether shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz can reopen safely.
If tensions persist and supply routes remain blocked, the aviation industry could face months of elevated fuel prices and mounting financial pressure.