Air travel between Canada and the United States is nosediving, with bookings down more than 70% year-on-year as the fallout from President Trump’s tariff war ripples beyond trade and into tourism.
According to newly released data from aviation analytics firm OAG, airlines are seeing a collapse in demand for trans-border flights, prompting major capacity cuts through to October 2025. The steepest reductions are occurring during the July to August peak travel season — a critical time for both business and leisure carriers.
Comparing booking data from March 2024 to March 2025, OAG found that passenger reservations for the April to September window were down by between 71% and 76%. Airlines have responded by removing over 320,000 seats from US-Canada routes, with the largest cut — 3.5% — scheduled for the height of summer.
But the plunge in bookings appears to be outpacing the cuts to capacity, suggesting that traveller confidence has dropped far more sharply than airlines anticipated. The data underscores a broader sense of unease among Canadians, many of whom are reconsidering US travel plans due to ongoing political tensions and trade disputes.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned Trump’s latest round of tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadian workers and industry, warning of retaliatory measures. The uncertainty surrounding escalating tariffs and their economic impact appears to be weighing heavily on cross-border mobility.
For carriers like Air Canada — which operates the most extensive Canada-US network — the downturn could force tough operational decisions. Adjustments to schedules, staffing and even route viability may follow if demand fails to recover ahead of the autumn.
The trade fallout isn’t the only concern. Some Canadians have cited increased discomfort with crossing the border, pointing to recent high-profile incidents involving the detention of foreign nationals by US immigration authorities.
While analysts had forecast a dip in cross-border travel as the trade dispute intensified, the magnitude of the decline — over 70% — is raising alarm across the aviation and tourism sectors.
With Trump’s car tariffs due to take effect on 3 April and further measures threatened, industry watchers say more turbulence could lie ahead — not just for exporters, but for airlines, airports and hospitality businesses that rely on the free flow of people across North America’s busiest border.