Airlines around the world are cancelling thousands of flights as a sharp surge in jet fuel prices, triggered by the Middle East conflict, begins to disrupt global aviation on an unprecedented scale.
Data from Cirium shows that nearly 7 per cent of the 104,000-plus flights scheduled globally were cancelled on Monday, equivalent to more than one in 20 departures, marking a significant increase on the same period last year.
The disruption comes as jet fuel prices have more than doubled, rising from around $742 per metric tonne a year ago to over $1,700, driven by a spike in crude oil prices and growing supply constraints.
The aviation sector is particularly exposed to energy market volatility, with jet fuel requiring more crude oil to refine than petrol or diesel. As a result, any disruption to oil supply has a disproportionately large impact on airline operating costs.
Prices have surged as Brent crude climbed above $115 a barrel, fuelled by disruption to supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.
The closure of the strait, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has tightened availability and pushed prices sharply higher.
Beyond rising costs, there are growing concerns about actual fuel shortages. Industry analysts warn that supplies are becoming increasingly constrained, particularly in Europe.
Aviation analyst Alex Macheras said a “serious jet fuel shortage” could emerge within days across multiple markets, with some major airports already preparing contingency plans.
Airlines are reportedly being advised to consider scenarios where fuel may not be available at certain hubs, forcing them to plan alternative refuelling strategies or adjust routes.
Carriers across the globe have begun reducing capacity in response to both higher costs and operational uncertainty.
Air New Zealand has announced cuts to more than 1,100 flights through early May, while Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) plans to cancel around 1,000 services next month, primarily on domestic routes.
In Asia, Vietnam Airlines has warned it may reduce flights by up to 20 per cent if fuel prices continue to rise, potentially affecting a significant portion of its network.
In the United States, United Airlines has already cut around 5 per cent of its capacity on less profitable routes, becoming one of the first major carriers to respond directly to the fuel shock.
Airlines are beginning to pass on higher costs to passengers, with ticket prices rising by as much as 15 to 20 per cent in recent weeks.
Scott Kirby, chief executive of United Airlines, said sustained high fuel prices could increase operating costs dramatically, forcing further fare increases to maintain profitability.
“If oil stays at current levels, costs could rise by billions,” he said, warning that higher fares would likely dampen demand and reduce passenger numbers.
The conflict itself is also disrupting travel patterns, with airlines including British Airways, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa cancelling flights to and from affected regions in the Middle East.
North America has seen some of the most severe disruption, with cancellation rates rising to nearly 15 per cent of scheduled departures, more than three times the level recorded a year earlier.
The aviation sector now faces a dual challenge: managing soaring fuel costs while navigating potential supply shortages that could further disrupt operations.
If oil prices continue to rise or supply constraints worsen, airlines may be forced to cut capacity further, pushing up fares and reducing connectivity across global networks.
For passengers, the immediate impact is clear, higher prices and fewer flights. For airlines, the crisis represents one of the most severe operational and financial tests since the pandemic.
As the situation evolves, the trajectory of energy markets will be critical in determining whether the current disruption stabilises, or escalates into a prolonged crisis for global aviation.
