Middle East conflict drags down June passenger numbers at Heathrow and Frankfurt

Business travellers relying on Europe’s two biggest hub airports face a summer of squeezed capacity, as both London Heathrow and Frankfurt reported falling passenger numbers for June, with the ongoing Iran conflict continuing to suppress Middle East traffic.

Heathrow handled 7.2 million passengers in June, down 1.8 per cent on the same month last year, while Frankfurt’s 5.7 million was a 1.7 per cent decline. At both airports, the drop was driven by Middle East routes, which fell 25 per cent year-on-year at Heathrow and 27 per cent at Frankfurt.

Fraport, Frankfurt’s operator, said Middle East traffic was recovering “month by month” but remained far below normal levels. For the first half of 2026, the German hub’s traffic fell 0.8 per cent to 28.9 million passengers, with Middle East volumes down 35 per cent on the same period of 2025. Strikes by Lufthansa staff earlier in the year added to the pressure, and the group has already scrapped 20,000 summer flights as fuel supplies tighten.

Fraport CEO Stefan Schulte said the first half had been affected by “many extraordinary factors”, including the war’s impact on both the availability and price of jet fuel, which has also dampened passenger demand. The surge in jet fuel prices has hit carriers across Europe.

“As a result, airlines were forced to reduce capacity, in some cases quite significantly. Taken together, all of these factors are dampening our passenger outlook for Frankfurt Airport. After a slight decline in the first half of the year, we now project full-year passenger volumes to remain at about 2025 levels,” Schulte added.

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Heathrow clings to growth, but tempers expectations

Heathrow fared slightly better over the six months, eking out a 0.2 per cent rise to just under 40 million passengers, according to its monthly traffic figures. But the airport, which has already cut its passenger and profit forecasts for 2026, has tempered expectations for the rest of the year, citing softening demand.

There were brighter spots for UK travellers. Heathrow’s Asia Pacific traffic rose 2.5 per cent in June, while North America was up 1.2 per cent, a boost attributed to the FIFA World Cup. For SMEs with transatlantic or Far East business, capacity on those routes is holding up even as Gulf connections shrink.

Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow’s CEO, said: “It’s been a strong end to the first half of 2026, despite the challenges presented by the situation in the Middle East. Sustained growth in North American and Asia-Pacific coupled with climbing cargo volumes demonstrates the strength of demand for global connectivity.”

Figures from ACI Europe for May confirmed Heathrow as Europe’s busiest airport with 7.12 million passengers, but its lead over Istanbul was a mere 3,000 travellers. Total European airport traffic rose 3.2 per cent year-on-year in May, a recovery from April’s 0.7 per cent decline.

The practical takeaway for business travellers is to book early on Middle East routings, expect fewer frequencies and higher fares while airlines trim capacity, and consider alternative connections via Asian hubs where traffic is growing. Frankfurt’s Far East traffic rose 6.4 per cent in the first half, with Africa up 8 per cent, suggesting eastbound options remain resilient.